Golf Tutorials

What Are the Odds of Getting an Eagle in Golf?

By Spencer Lanoue
July 24, 2025

Shooting two-under-par on a single hole, the coveted eagle, is one of the most exhilarating moments in golf. It’s a score that can flip the momentum of your round and leave you with a story to tell at the 19th hole. This article will break down exactly what an eagle is, the real-world odds of you making one, and provide some practical coaching tips to improve your chances of carding this rare bird.

What Qualifies as an Eagle?

In golf’s scoring lexicon, where "birdie" is one-under-par for a hole, an "eagle" soars even higher, representing a score of two-under-par. It's a mark of exceptional play on a single hole, combining either immense power, incredible precision, or a healthy dose of good fortune - often all three.

The vast majority of eagles are made on Par-5s. Here's the typical breakdown:

  • On a Par-5: A score of 3. This usually happens when a golfer hits a long drive, a fantastic second shot onto the green, and then sinks the putt. This is, by far, the most common type of eagle.
  • On a Par-4: A score of 2. This is much rarer and occurs in one of two spectacular ways: either a player drives the green on a short Par-4 and makes the putt, or they hole-out their approach shot from the fairway.
  • On a Par-3: A score of 1. You know this one by a different name - a hole-in-one! Every ace on a Par-3 is technically also an eagle, but the moment is so unique it gets its own special title.

Breaking Down the Odds: From PGA Pros to Weekend Golfers

The odds of making an eagle change dramatically depending on skill level. While eagles are a regular occurrence on the PGA Tour, for the average amateur, they can be a once-in-a-lifetime achievement. Understanding these numbers helps put the feat into perspective.

The PGA Tour Professional

For the best players on the planet, an eagle isn't a shocking event, it’s a necessary part of competing. On the PGA Tour, an average player will make an eagle roughly once every 100 to 120 holes played. Powerful hitters who specialize in attacking Par-5s, like Rory McIlroy or Jon Rahm, often have even better odds, sometimes carding an eagle every 75-80 holes.

The reason is simple: they possess the raw distance to reach nearly every Par-5 in two shots. Combine that with world-class accuracy from 250+ yards and excellent putting, and eagle opportunities become a regular part of their strategy, especially on courses with gettable Par-5s.

The Scratch Golfer

A scratch golfer (a player with a zero handicap) has the skills but not always the brute force of a Tour pro. They are fantastic players but may only be able to reach a handful of Par-5s in two shots per round, and only if conditions are favorable. Their odds are much longer. While there's no official statistic, a general consensus puts the odds for a scratch player at around 1 in every 450 to 500 holes. An eagle is still a celebrated score, probably happening a couple of times a season for a dedicated player.

The Average Amateur Golfer (15-20 Handicap)

For the vast majority of golfers, an eagle is a true collector's item. The odds lengthen to an astronomical 1 in 8,000 to 10,000 holes played - or even more. For a golfer who plays once a week, this could mean an eagle once every 8 or 10 years, if ever.

Why is it so tough? The average amateur simply doesn't have the combination of skills required:

  • Lack of Distance: Most amateurs can't hit the ball far enough to reach a Par-5 green in two shots. The hole instantly becomes a three-shot effort for a birdie at best.
  • Inconsistent Accuracy: Even if they have the distance, the fairway wood or hybrid shot from 200+ yards needs to be both long and straight - a low-percentage shot for most.
  • Small Margin for Error: Hitting a green in two on a Par-5 might leave a 50-foot putt. The chance of holing a putt of that length is exceedingly small for any golfer. Carding an eagle by holing out a chip or pitch shot is even more improbable.

The Two Paths to an Eagle

Most eagles aren't happy accidents, they are the result of executing a specific, aggressive game plan. Let's look at the strategy behind the two main types.

Strategy for a Par-5 Eagle (The Most Common Route)

Step 1: The Tee Shot Sets the Stage

Your eagle hunt begins on the tee box. A mediocre drive immediately takes an eagle out of play. Your goal isn't just distance, but position. You need a long drive that finds the fairway. Being in the short grass allows for a clean strike on your second shot, giving you maximum control and distance. A 300-yard drive into the trees is useless for scoring.

Step 2: The Approach Shot is the "Go" Moment

This is where the magic happens. You're likely standing 200-250 yards from the green, holding a long iron, hybrid, or fairway wood. Committing to this shot is mentally challenging. You must decide if you can realistically carry any hazards (like water or bunkers) and land the ball on the green. A great shot here leaves you with an eagle putt. Even a decent miss that leaves you with a simple chip is a fantastic result, as it still gives you an excellent look at birdie.

Step 3: Seizing the Opportunity on the Green

Most eagle putts are not tap-ins. They’re often long, winding putts of 20, 30, or even 50 feet. It’s easy to get defensive and just try to lag it close for a guaranteed birdie. But to make an eagle, you have to give the putt a chance. Focus on a confident stroke and the right speed. Read the line, trust it, and hit it with the intention of making it. If it drops, it’s a moment you’ll never forget. If it misses, you walk a few feet and tap in for a stress-free birdie.

Strategy for a Par-4 Eagle (The "Oh Wow!" Moment)

A "2" on a Par-4 feels like hitting the lottery. It's almost always a combination of aggressive strategy and perfect execution.

Path 1: Driving a Short Par-4

Courses often have at least one drivable Par-4, usually under 320 yards with limited trouble around the green. Hitting driver here is a high-risk, high-reward play. A perfect shot finds the putting surface, leaving you a putt for a rare eagle. A poor shot, however, could end up in a deep bunker, thick rough, or out of bounds, leading to a bogey or worse. You have to weigh the potential reward against the very real danger of wrecking your scorecard.

Path 2: Holing Out From the Fairway

This is the more common - and perhaps more spectacular - way to make an eagle on a Par-4. It starts with a solid drive that leaves you at a comfortable wedge or short iron distance. From there, you just purely strike your approach shot, it takes the perfect bounce, and disappears into the cup. You can't really plan for this beyond practicing your wedge game. The strategy is simply to hit a great drive, then aim to hit your approach as close as possible. Every now and then, it goes all the way in.

How to Hunt for Eagles (Smartly)

While luck is involved, you can absolutely put yourself in a better position to make an eagle. It requires a mindset shift from defensive to opportunistic golf.

  • Identify Your Opportunities: Before your round, look at the scorecard. Are there any short Par-5s? A drivable Par-4? Know which holes offer a realistic eagle chance for your personal game and be ready to play them aggressively.
  • Prioritize Power &, Position on Par-5s: Your tee shot on a Par-5 is your most important tool for eagle hunting. Spend practice time with your driver focused not just on hitting it far, but on hitting fairways. If you safely get your ball out there 240+ yards and in the short grass, the door is open.
  • Master Your "Go-To" Approach Club: Whether it's your 3-wood, 5-wood, or a hybrid, get to know the club you'll use for long approach shots. Practice it on the range until you feel confident you can hit it high, straight, and a consistent distance. This is the difference-maker.
  • Sharpen Your Short Game for the "Oops" Factor: A holed-out chip or pitch for eagle on a Par-5 you couldn't reach is an unbelievable feeling. Great chippers and pitchers give themselves more chances for happy accidents.
  • Be Smart-Aggressive: Chasing an eagle doesn't mean being foolish. If a Par-5 has a lake guarding the front of the green and you know it's a 1-in-20 shot for you to carry it, the smart play is to lay up and secure your birdie. Wait for opportunities where the risk is manageable.

Final Thoughts

Making an eagle_ is an extraordinary accomplishment that requires a blend of skill, strategy, and good fortune. While statistically rare for most golfers, knowing when and how to press for one makes the game more strategic and exciting. Focusṁing_ on what you can control - like purposeful tee shots and confident long approaches - will turn a pipe dream into a tangible goal.

Chasing an eagle often comes down to one or two crucial decisions, like whether you should attack a Par-5 in two or what the right club is for that long approach. That's exactly where we designed Caddie AI to help. You can get instant, expert advice on strategy for any hole on the course, including the specific play to give you the best shot at an eagle without taking on foolish risks. We built it to take the guesswork out of these big moments, so you can swing with confidence and give yourself a real chance at carding your next eagle.

Spencer has been playing golf since he was a kid and has spent a lifetime chasing improvement. With over a decade of experience building successful tech products, he combined his love for golf and startups to create Caddie AI - the world's best AI golf app. Giving everyone an expert level coach in your pocket, available 24/7. His mission is simple: make world-class golf advice accessible to everyone, anytime.

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